submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. DollarsFirstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto DollarsDue to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional DevelopmentsIn addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future OpportunitiesThere is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
 How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
 The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
 Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
 Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
 Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
 Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
 McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
 Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
 Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
 Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
 Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
 The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
 Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
 Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
 New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
 Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
 Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
 Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
 Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
 Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
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submitted by StrattonForex to u/StrattonForex [link] [comments]
An expert adviser is simply a program which can execute any task it's instructed to do without any direct human involvement required.
They allow the user to automate the trading and analytical process on a given platform such as MT4.If trying to make an EA one needs to use an editor such as Meta Editor on the MT4 terminal. Then the user gives a set of instructions to the program to execute under certain conditions, it can be user to execute multiple trades in seconds or perform analytical process on any given feed/information given on the MT4 platform.
Why EAs are popular and used?
Quick to open positions and react to market volatility:
With so many instruments available to trade and so much analysis to do, humans can not make time for the analysis of the market and cannot open multiple positions to avail all the intraday opportunities in the market. While an EA can analyze a greater number of instruments to make truly a diverse portfolio and react to market volatility much faster.
EA strategies can be back tested:
The set of instructions or the strategy that you code in the EA can be back tested to ensure that it's delivering the results wanted by the developer.
No Emotions to hamper potential profits:
Emotions and psycology plays an important role when the trade goes the wrong way. One of the many benefits of an EA is that it has no emotions as compared to humans and can open close trades based on the parameters given and respond with risk management protocols if trades go wrong.
No rest needed :
Unlike humans the EA doesn't need to eat, sleep, drop kids to school or go to work etc. They start compiling the instruction set whenever the program/EA is executed. It can perform market analysis all the time without break and open trades when there are more potential opportunities in the market which the human trader might be missing because of his busy life.
However traders should be aware of the risks involved with using an EA. There are many good ones giving a substantial return over investment per anum but many of the ones which claim astronomical returns might turn out to be fraudulent. If these astronomical returns were that easy to get using EAs then all banks and hedge funds would just put their money with the EA and the world would be a much richer place :D
While checking for EAs to buy be sure to check their history , user reviews and back tested data before risking your investment. Remember many unethical brokers make fake historical trade data which these fraudulent EA developers market online and entice clients with huge returns.
For more News from the FX Markets visit our website.
We also have on demand webinars for clients who are interested in growing their knowledge in the FX sphere.
FOREX.com offers forex & metals trading with award winning trading platforms, tight spreads, quality executions, powerful trading tools & 24-hour live support 7:00 AM - 8:00 AM — Opening Auction 8:00 AM - 4:30 PM — Continuous Trading 4:30 PM - 4:35 PM — Closing Auction 4:40 PM - 5:15 PM — Post Close † Times shown are in Europe/London time (GMT+00:00) It offers reliable services for earning on Forex trading. Web-Trader; Callback; Online Forex broker ... The service is not provided in the following countries: Japan, USA, Canada, UK, Myanmar, Brazil, Malaysia, Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran . Payment transactions are managed by НDС Technologies Ltd.; Registration No. HE 370778; Address: Arch. Makariou III & Vyronos, P. Lordos ... What are the opening and closing times of the DAX? The DAX opens at 8am and closes at 4.30pm (UK time), Monday to Friday. Deutsche Börse (the Frankfurt Stock Exchange) also calculates the late DAX (4.30pm-9pm UK time) and early DAX (7am-8am UK time) for out-of-hours prices. Note, these hours may vary as the UK and Germany shift to and from daylight savings time. IG offers longer hours on our ... FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital UK Limited. GAIN Capital UK Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 1761813 and with its registered office at Devon House, 58 St Katharine’s Way, London, E1W 1JP. GAIN Capital UK Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number 113942. GAIN Capital UK ... The Forex market opens every Sunday at 17:00 New York time (*EST in winter and *EDT in summer) and closes every Friday at the same time. We use New York time as our benchmark because the market open/close is always at 17:00 in New York, right through the year. 17:00 New York time is the end of the U.S. session and during certain times of the year it is also the start of the Sydney session. Now that you know what forex is, why you should trade it, and who makes up the forex market, it’s about time you learned when you can trade.. It’s time to learn about the different forex trading sessions.. Yes, it is true that the forex market is open 24 hours a day, but that doesn’t mean it’s always active the entire day. Seize opportunities at market opening and closing times and become familiar with holidays and other times affecting exchanges with easyMarkets.com. Forex market is a 24 hours market around the clock. But for all currency pairs, volatility does not stay equal. It varies time to time for different sessions. Forex Sessions are basically stock exchange time across the globe. When stock market opens major transaction happens. Thus it moves the currency market as traders are buying and selling stocks with currencies. Forex market is open 24 hours a day. It provides a great opportunity for traders to trade at any time of the day or night. However, when it seems to be not so important at the beginning, the right time to trade is one of the most crucial points in becoming a successful Forex trader. So, when should one consider trading and why? The best time to trade is when the market is the most active and ...
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Forex Market Hours - Forex For Beginners In this video I will explain what the best trading times are for binary options in the three main time zones being Europe (including the UK), America & Austr... Watch our video to find out the basic processes taking place on the foreign exchange market and how you can benefit from them. In addition, you will learn ho... #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join the A1 Trading Team? See trades taken by our top trading analysts, join our live trading chatroom, and acces... Join our Trading Room where we discuss all things forex: https://bit.ly/2yjZmp4 What time-frame should I be trading on? I get this question all the time! Of ... The major forex trading hours and forex trading sessions explained in detail for you. Aside from the forex time zones, I also want to talk about the forex ma... Get more information about IG US by visiting their website: https://www.ig.com/us/future-of-forex Get my trading strategies here: https://www.robbooker.com C... We interview traders & educators regularly. Subscribe if you want to learn while being entertained. Please like the video and comment if you enjoyed - it... The Best Times to Trade the Forex Markets. Subscribe if you want to learn while being entertained. Please like the video and comment if you enjoyed - it ... 1) Stock Market Open or Stock Market Close. If you're trading the USD dollar for instance look at when the USA stock market session opens which is 2.30pm UK time. You often get little movements ...